Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 4.777772 5.612129 6.534433 7.627515 8.885496 10.285678 11.959948
2025-08-10 3.270731 4.326947 5.622843 7.320455 9.475306 12.107984 15.555429
2025-08-17 2.326337 3.411584 4.867636 6.943101 9.800421 13.566788 18.872144
2025-08-24 1.789341 2.869860 4.435527 6.833009 10.365582 15.323098 22.734346
2025-08-31 1.424794 2.476033 4.107019 6.766562 10.922782 17.077078 26.753555
2025-09-07 1.226538 2.287469 4.034742 7.042973 11.986656 19.647223 32.213132
2025-09-14 1.030453 2.055543 3.841856 7.077878 12.650040 21.652954 37.003085
2025-09-21 0.873666 1.857174 3.664254 7.096515 13.266335 23.623045 41.912527
2025-09-28 0.746631 1.686321 3.501718 7.106457 13.851201 25.580013 46.971854
2025-10-05 0.713328 1.694945 3.672141 7.744856 15.619577 29.712934 56.098107
2025-10-12 0.642852 1.610185 3.644449 7.995484 16.694720 32.724239 63.535985
2025-10-19 0.585636 1.542525 3.638796 8.284296 17.867807 36.012264 71.751453
2025-10-26 0.509498 1.417973 3.498763 8.290202 18.513071 38.437053 78.713719
2025-11-02 0.424031 1.251652 3.238969 8.003875 18.534565 39.686611 83.610936
2025-11-09 0.346606 1.086785 2.951772 7.609858 18.274983 40.351250 87.435049
2025-11-16 0.297332 0.985614 2.797927 7.495631 18.600166 42.214759 93.794474
2025-11-23 0.257692 0.901755 2.671457 7.425274 19.010067 44.285610 100.752005
2025-11-30 0.239288 0.877170 2.694721 7.726882 20.308826 48.356345 112.206634
2025-12-07 0.212778 0.820142 2.619607 7.765138 20.986209 51.136115 121.148355
2025-12-14 0.189063 0.765987 2.542401 7.785518 21.620732 53.875799 130.229677
2025-12-21 0.168066 0.715447 2.466149 7.796374 22.231280 56.613883 139.531211
2025-12-28 0.168363 0.742155 2.626898 8.491021 24.660903 63.752306 159.243405
2026-01-04 0.156946 0.722000 2.639290 8.763617 26.022987 68.500854 173.875854